The Boy who Procrastinates (TBWP): Portfolio

Portfolio Review for June 2020

By The Boy Who Procrastinates - July 01, 2020

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Portfolio Review for Mar 2020

By The Boy Who Procrastinates - March 31, 2020

The first quarter of 2020 has been nothing short of terrifying with the unfolding of Coronavirus pandemic. In recent weeks, countries have enforced lockdowns and imposed draconian restrictions on movement as part of necessary measures to curb the spread of the respiratory illness that has stubbornly defied containment.

To amplify the Coronavirus mayhem on the global economies, the oil and gas markets were ensnared by oversupply and collapse in oil price resulted from the unforeseen battle for oil domination between Russia and Saudi Arabia, two of the world's oil superpowers.

The constriction of travels and broader economic activities due to the Covid-19 virus, together with the suicidal oil price war initiated by Saudi Arabia, have completed the perfect storm for global market selldown. In the short span of weeks, trillions in wealth were erased from the stock markets as investors pulled out of equities and forced to liquidate positions to cover margin calls.

The three most widely followed indexes in the U.S. have fallen over 30% from their recent highs, starting one of the most volatile periods in the past decade. Amid the market upheaval, traditional safe haven assets like gold and high quality bonds were not spared either. The U.S. dollar has surged as investors dumped everything to hoard the greenback. In the age of Coronavirus, cash is indeed king.

To cushion the blow from Coronavirus pandemic, governments and central banks globally have unleashed unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus over the past few weeks. The Fed has announced the first unscheduled emergency interest rate cut since 2008 to near zero. Unlimited quantitative easing program to buy unlimited amounts of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities has also been launched to stave off an economic crisis. Mounting fear about imminent recessions has rippled across countries.

Action in Q1

Personally, the 2003 SARS outbreak had not left a strong impression during my schooling days. I vaguely recalled that schools were closed and the whole outbreak was short-lived. During the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, I still buried my head in textbooks, largely in my own world and not giving a care to the current affairs.

So it is perhaps the first time that I am going through a worldwide crisis like this. And it certainly does not help that the proliferation of social media has sparked an epidemic of online panic.

As we are currently in unchartered waters, it may be flawed to predict the market bottom based on past events related to SARS/GFC. So far, the magnitude of the virus' impact on the economy appears to be more profound than before.

When the Asia-centric Coronavirus seems to be petering out in February, I have initiated positions in a few counters in tranches but only to witness US and Europe becoming the next virus epicenters. In hindsight, those positions were entered too early.

In a bear market, it can be challenging to maintain a dispassionate attitude. When you have bought a stock at a bargain price and managed to time the bottom of the trading day, you might feel relieved but only to see it decline further the following day, which induces fear of losses and demotivates investing.

But trying to catch the absolute bottom can be a fool's endeavor. In a bear market, it would probably be wise to invest in tranches with each percentage decline and not a whole lump sum.

And as Howard Marks, the co-founder of Oaktree Capital Management has said, "Which is more important to you? To get some of the values that exist today, or to have more dry powder ready to go in if it goes lower? And you can’t accomplish both goals simultaneously"

Portfolio

With global economies adversely impacted by the virus outbreak, my portfolio, too was not spared in the recent market carnage. Despite the capital injection, the portfolio value has fallen by approximately 22%.

If the balance sheets of the companies you are vested in, are sturdy enough to weather through the crisis, it probably helps to not monitor your portfolio value on a daily basis. On the other hand, those which are not fundamentally resilient will not be able to escape unscathed and eventually bite the dust.

In a dramatic turn of events, the Eagle Hospitality Trust (EHT) has received a notice of default as its sponsor and master lessee, Urban Commons has reneged on its rental payment to EHT. To exacerbate the situation, its lenders have exercised their rights to accelerate the entirety of a syndicated loan of US$341 million. EHT is also restricted from paying out the maiden distribution which is due at the end of the month. This comes barely a year after EHT has been listed on the local bourse.

But its woes predates the Coronavirus with multiple warning signs and red flags that I should have heeded, such as the paring down of stakes by cornerstone shareholders and the resignation of management.

Given the suspension of the stock, I am prepared to write it off completely from my portfolio. Warren Buffet's advice to never lose money, could not have been more apt in this scenario. Blindly chasing dividend yield is perilous with exposure to potential loss of capital. It is a necessary and important lesson for me to pick up.

In such a market selldown, it is certainly better to focus on larger caps or blue chips entities with longer track records, such as the Ascendas, Capitaland, Frasers and Mapletree groups for REITS related investment. In the face of crisis, they usually benefit from the relatively lower cost of debt, with generally healthier balance sheets to cushion the blow from the virus.

Dividend

The 1st quarter has recorded the collection of dividends at $1,360.11. Compared to 1Q2019, the dividend collected has increased by approximately 10% from $1,235.21.

The dividend collected from this quarter is contributed by the following securities:

Month	Payment Date	Security	Dividend
January	2 Jan	SSB Jan 2019	$50.25
January	15 Jan	ABF SG Bond ETF	$124.50
February	24 Feb	STI ETF	$84.00
February	28 Feb	Starhill Global REIT	$192.10
March	27 Mar	Far East HTrust	$114.00
	30 Mar	CapitaRetail China Trust	$180.50
	30 Mar	Cromwell European REIT	$614.76

However, with the economy ravaged by the Coronavirus pandemic, it is highly likely that we may be confronted with dividend suspensions and cuts in the next few quarters. This could possibly delay my 2020 financial target of reaching $6,000 dividend.

Total Dividend Collected : $ 1,360.11
Average Dividend/Month : $ 453.37 (over 3-months period)

* Exchange Rate
1 EUR : 1.570417 SGD
1 USD : 1.423795 SGD

Personal Thought

With growing concerns about the Coronavirus, I have been working from home every now and then. Like many others who were affected by the virus outbreak, we were supposed to travel to Japan these 2 weeks but it was disrupted. The process of claiming for refunds is still ongoing with our travel insurer. Given the situation, it is necessary to defer non-essential travels during this period.

It definitely hits the hardest when a family member of mine was identified with a need to serve the Stay Home Notice via contact tracing. I have mainly been staying indoors unless purchasing of essential necessities and household items is required.

Source: coronastats.co

The global trend for daily new infections seems to have tapered down a little but the number of daily new deaths is still making new highs. Though China seems to be out of the woods for now, all eyes are now on Europe and US as they struggle to battle the spread of COVID-19.

The importance of health has never been more pronounced, especially in this current pandemic. Hope everyone can remain safe and sound during this period. That's what matters at this point.

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Portfolio

Portfolio Review for Dec 2019

By The Boy Who Procrastinates - December 31, 2019

The heat on the US-China trade war has finally been turned down as the two countries have reached an agreement on their "phase one" trade pact. Under the deal, the United States has agreed to suspend tariffs on Chinese goods in exchange for Chinese purchase of American farm products over the next two years.

The US Federal Reserve has taken down its benchmark rate for the third time on 30 Oct, setting the fund rate in the target range of 1.5% to 1.75% which was cited to "provide some insurance against ongoing risk" facing the US economy. The recent decision to hold the interest rate steady in Dec could be a signal by the Fed to move into an extended pause for 2020.

Now with the Fear & Greed Index standing at 90, it could possibly be seen as a bellwether for an overheated market in the US.

Hong Kong has seen months of pro-democracy protests rumbling for the sixth straight month. To ring in the new year, a mass march is said to take place in 2020, signalling more unrest to be expected at the start of a new decade.

In this quarter, the local STI has whipsawed from 3,146.03 at the beginning of October to a high of 3,285.72 in November before closing the year at 3,222.83, marking a increment of 2.44%. Overall, the STI has recorded an increment of 6.05% in 2019, a stark contrast to the 2018 bear market with a decline of 10.54%.

On the other hand, the SGX S-REIT 20 Index has closed at 1,456.945 for the year, with a -0.03% change in the last quarter. Taken as a whole, the index has recorded a remarkable gain of 20.17% in 2019.

Action in Q4

In the last quarter of the year, I have accumulated positions in Eagle HTrust at USD 0.46, averaging down my entry price.

The recent plunge in its share price comes after a slew of negative events with the allegation of sponsor not meeting its lease obligations to maintain Queen Mary taking the centre stage. In addition, insiders and substantial unitholders, including the Yuan family, have been paring down their stakes.

In its entirety, I do consider this to be more of a risky position for my portfolio and I am keeping it to less than 10% of the overall portfolio size.

Portfolio

(Click to enlarge)

The capital injection to the portfolio in Nov has been represented by the green portion which helps to provide a better picture of the change in portfolio value.

Despite the mini bull run, I have mostly been taking a backseat with my portfolio seeing a dearth of action this year. Perhaps the one saving grace is that the portfolio value has crept past the $120,000 mark amid the intermittent injection of capital throughout the year.

Dividend

(Click to enlarge)

The 4th quarter has recorded the collection of dividends at $1,021.80 which is relatively low compared to that in the 1st and 3rd quarters. This could mainly be attributed to October being a dry month for dividends. Benchmarked against 4Q2018, it is still a modest 9.85% increment.

The dividend acquired in this quarter is contributed by the following securities:

Month	Payment Date	Security	Dividend
October	-	-	-
November	22 Nov	SIA Engineering	$90.00
	26 Nov	Netlink Trust NBN	$403.20
	29 Nov	Starhill Global Reit	$192.10
December	2 Dec	SSB Dec 2018	$47.25
	12 Dec	Far East HTrust	$124.80
	16 Dec	Astrea IV Bond	$87.24
	20 Dec	Astrea V Bond	$77.21

This year, the total dividends collected have grown by approximately 103.90%, primarily due to the active injection of funds into the portfolio in 2018. However, it is still short of my short-term goal of reaching dividend income of $500 per month. A little room for advancement in the new year.

Total Dividend Collected : $ 4,902.07
Average Dividend/Month : $ 408.51 (over 12-months period)

* Exchange Rate

1 EUR : 1.510537 SGD
1 USD : 1.34831 SGD

To wind up the last post of the year, thank you for reading and a happy new year to everyone! It is time to unfold new pages and start a new chapter in your life. A new year, a new start and infinite possibilities!

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Portfolio

Portfolio Review for Sept 2019

By The Boy Who Procrastinates - September 28, 2019

Even though Xi and Trump have agreed to a trade truce at the G20 Summit in late June, the tit-for-tat trade war appears to resume with greater intensity. At one point, the PBOC has let the Chinese yuan fall about 4% to cushion the blow of US escalating trade tariffs. In response, China was labelled a currency manipulator by US Treasury.

At this stage, there does not seem to be a respite insight for this ongoing trade war as both sides have threatened with new tariffs and hikes to the existing duties in the months to come.

This quarter, the US Fed has lowered the interest rate on 2 occasions on 31 July and 18 Sept respectively, putting the range of the fed fund rate at 1.75% to 2% amid uncertain economic outlook.

Back at home, the STI has fallen from 3,372.26 at the start of July to a low of 3,054.84 in August before recovering to 3,125.63 in September, accounting for a relatively substantial drop of 7.31%.

The SGX S-REIT 20 Index has behaved in a similar fashion, declining from 1,446.659 in July to a low of 1,374.699 in August before climbing back to to 1,460.161 in September, recording an overall gain of 0.93% in the short span of 3 months.

Action in Q3

With the escalating trade war, I have been taking a back seat this quarter and have not taken any action to load up or sell any positions.

Portfolio

The portfolio value has not really fluctuated much against the backdrop of decreasing interest rate and bitter trade battle between US and China. Overall, the market value of my portfolio has dropped by approximately 0.68% in this unexciting quarter.

Dividend

The dividends collected this quarter is 61.16% greater than that of 3Q2018, with it being the quarter with the highest dividends this year thus far and hitting the goal of $500 per month.

The dividend collected from this quarter is contributed by the following securities:

Month	Payment Date	Security	Dividend
July	1 July	SSB Jan 2019	$49.97
	3 July	Far East Orchard	$24.00
	31 July	Cromwell European REIT	$609.30
August	8 August	SIA Engineering	$240.00
	21 August	STI ETF	$96.00
	29 August	Starhill Global REIT	$187.00
	30 August	Raffles Medical	$187.00
September	13 September	Far East HTrust	$109.20
September	27 September	CapitaRetail China Trust	$314.50

Total Dividend Collected : $3,880.27
Average Dividend/Month : $431.14 (over 9-months period)

* Exchange Rate
1 EUR : 1.508804 SGD
1 USD : 1.382125 SGD

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Portfolio Review for June 2019

By The Boy Who Procrastinates - June 29, 2019

With the first half of the year behind us now, the second quarter is nothing short of eventful.

On May 10, Trump has raised tariff on US$200 billion worth of Chinese goods from 10% to 25% which was met with retaliation from China with tariff hikes on US$60 billion worth of American goods exported to China on 1 June.

It evidently does not help that US has accused Huawei of espionage and stealing of intellectual property which led to the addition of Huawei to an export blacklist that bans entities from conducting business with US companies without US government approval. Even though the ban was subsequently delayed, it has undoubtedly exacerbated the tensions and antagonism between Beijing and Washington.

Just when it was difficult to envision a path out of the quagmire on trade issues, Xi and Trump have reignited trade talks ahead of the meeting at G20 summit in Osaka this weekend.

On 19 June, FOMC has held the line on the interest rate in the target range of 2.25% to 2.5%. However, the FOMC vote was divided with Powell seeing his first dissent of his tenure as Fed Chairman. This could possibly pave the way for a rate cut in July.

Back at home, Singapore has seen dismal export data in the last 3 months on the back of lingering uncertainties from the US-China trade spat and the fading of electronics cycle. To compound the problem, Singapore was branded as a currency manipulator by the US.

Amid the growing economic uncertainties globally, the STI has whipsawed from 3,250.51 at the start of April to a peak of 3,412.47 towards the end of the month before closing the quarter at 3,321.61, accounting for a rise of 2.19%.

On the other hand, the SGX S-REIT 20 Index has been on a stable ascend from 1353.741 in April to 1442.120 in June, recording a gain of 6.53% in the short span of 3 months.

Action in Q2

In the second quarter of the year, I have initiated positions in Eagle HTrust and Astrea V Bond.

Eagle HTrust
I have subscribed to this pure-play US hospitality trust during its IPO. I like that it has a master lease structure with 66% of the base rental on fixed rates which helps to provide some form of stability in the inherently cyclical hospitality industry. Majority of the hotel properties in the portfolio have completed their renovations in 2018 and first quarter of 2019 prior to the IPO. The past financial data and operational statistics seems to suggest a generally consistent uptrend performance.

However, with the volatile market condition, the weakness among recent REIT listing debuts appears to have cast a pall over the IPO market.

Needless to say, Eagle HTrust was not spared. On hindsight, it could have been an impetuous decision as the counter has shed 6.4% from its IPO price on its first day of trading. Will all that said, I will continue to monitor this counter.

Astrea V Bond
Following the successful launch of Astrea IV Bond last year, there was another issue of the PE Bond this year which was 4.5 times oversubscribed.

Although I would have wished that the yield to maturity can be higher than 3.85%, I guess the change in the recent interest rate environment has called for a lower yield for Astrea V Bond as compared to the previous issue.

Nevertheless, I have initiated a small position in the bond.

Portfolio

(Click to enlarge)

The capital injection to the portfolio in May and June have been represented by the green portion which helps to provide a better picture of the change in portfolio value.

Overall, the market value of my portfolio has increased by 11.93% to $114,633.18 in the second quarter, to a large extent due to the injection of funds.

Dividend

(Click to enlarge)

The second quarter is comparatively unexciting for me. The dividends collected in this quarter is 21.18% less than that of 1Q2019. However, compared to 2Q2018, the dividend collected has increased by 172% to $973.59, chiefly due to a significant capital injection into the portfolio last year.

The dividend collected from this quarter is contributed by the following securities:

Month	Payment Date	Security	Dividend
April	-	-	-
May	7 May	Capitaland	$120.00
	24 May	Hyphens Pharma	$16.50
	30 May	Starhill Global REIT	$187.00
June	3 Jun	Netlink Trust NBN	$390.40
	3 Jun	SSB Dec 2018	$46.73
	12 Jun	Far East HTrust	$109.20
	14 Jun	Astrea IV Bond	$86.76
	27 Jun	Raffles Medical	$17.00

Total Dividend Collected : $2,208.80
Average Dividend/Month : $368.13 (over 6-months period)

* Exchange Rate
1 EUR : 1.5383 SGD
1 USD : 1.3528 SGD

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Month	Payment Date	Security	Dividend
April	-	-	-
May	13 May	Hongkong Land	$181.09

	29 May	Mapletree Commercial Trust	$31.85
June	1 June	SSB Dec 2018	$54.75
	3 June	Netlink Trust NBN	$404.80
	5 June	OCBC	$7.28
	8 June	Hyphens Pharma	$30.00
	15 June	Astrea IV Bond	$87.24
	22 June	Astrea V Bond	$77.21
	24 June	Mapletree NAC Trust	$24.80

Portfolio Review for June 2020

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Portfolio Review for Mar 2020

Action in Q1

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Personal Thought

Portfolio Review for Dec 2019

Action in Q4

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Portfolio Review for Sept 2019

Action in Q3

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Portfolio Review for June 2019

Action in Q2

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